* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 42 35 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 42 35 30 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 37 38 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 19 20 20 34 44 64 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -7 -2 -5 0 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 249 270 281 273 265 259 254 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.5 25.9 23.3 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 146 150 153 146 117 98 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 118 122 127 126 103 88 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 52 53 56 63 68 71 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -27 -49 -41 -35 6 52 73 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -10 -8 -21 -4 13 65 71 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 2 6 3 22 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 160 140 118 131 175 349 348 355 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.0 34.4 34.8 35.3 35.8 37.4 39.5 41.7 44.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.0 74.9 74.3 73.8 71.3 67.0 61.5 56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 7 10 16 21 24 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 40 34 32 32 35 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -5. -17. -25. -33. -39. -46. -54. -60. -63. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 12. 5. -0. -6. -11. -14. -19. -23. -25. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.0 75.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 13.5% 8.8% 6.4% 5.4% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 18.8% 15.7% 4.6% 1.1% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 10.8% 8.2% 3.7% 2.2% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 41 44 42 35 30 24 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 38 41 39 32 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 36 34 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 28 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT