* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/30/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 89 90 89 89 89 89 83 73 62 47 36 24 23 23 23 21 V (KT) LAND 90 89 90 89 89 89 89 83 73 62 47 36 24 23 23 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 90 89 89 90 90 89 86 75 61 50 42 36 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 11 17 19 16 24 28 20 13 29 31 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 1 1 -1 8 2 5 3 7 0 0 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 327 316 298 289 283 242 225 225 294 324 358 18 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.1 28.2 27.4 27.3 25.0 24.1 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 145 138 140 131 131 108 100 94 91 89 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 120 122 118 121 115 115 95 87 82 79 77 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.9 -53.3 -54.7 -55.0 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 38 36 36 36 36 36 31 30 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 25 27 29 32 31 27 23 17 13 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -59 -44 -32 -18 1 -12 -49 -93 -123 -127 -136 -128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 3 30 31 22 55 52 1 -53 -61 -72 -30 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 11 11 2 5 18 21 -9 0 -6 10 8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1613 1603 1589 1538 1493 1398 1381 1507 1712 1880 1634 1430 1228 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.1 32.4 32.9 33.4 34.8 36.5 38.1 39.1 39.7 40.2 40.7 41.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.4 53.6 52.8 51.7 50.6 47.7 43.6 38.9 34.8 31.2 28.4 26.1 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 12 16 19 19 15 13 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 12 12 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -17. -24. -32. -38. -43. -48. -52. -54. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 6. 1. -5. -15. -22. -29. -28. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -7. -17. -28. -43. -54. -66. -67. -67. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.7 54.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.55 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 875.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.02 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 8.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 3.2% 2.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 4.1% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/30/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 12( 23) 11( 31) 11( 39) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 89 90 89 89 89 89 83 73 62 47 36 24 23 23 23 21 18HR AGO 90 89 90 89 89 89 89 83 73 62 47 36 24 23 23 23 21 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 85 85 85 79 69 58 43 32 20 19 19 19 17 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 80 80 74 64 53 38 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 71 65 55 44 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 89 80 74 71 70 70 64 54 43 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 89 90 81 75 71 71 65 55 44 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS