* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 112 106 102 89 77 67 62 60 58 60 59 59 60 60 59 V (KT) LAND 110 113 112 106 102 89 77 67 62 60 58 60 59 59 60 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 110 112 108 101 96 85 76 69 64 61 61 62 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 11 12 12 13 17 13 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 7 5 5 6 6 2 4 0 4 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 165 229 227 234 224 240 250 241 233 216 219 201 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.7 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 127 129 130 131 139 141 143 146 150 150 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 39 38 36 36 35 34 36 35 37 37 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 19 20 20 18 15 14 14 13 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 26 8 8 14 15 26 35 54 69 58 54 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 30 4 -4 -9 10 21 6 28 1 -11 -6 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 4 2 0 1 4 1 3 3 -4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 938 841 745 645 546 352 175 82 204 367 396 524 722 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.5 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.9 146.8 147.7 148.7 149.6 151.5 153.5 155.5 157.6 159.6 161.9 164.2 166.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 2 4 6 8 18 24 43 33 34 60 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -23. -29. -35. -40. -43. -44. -44. -45. -46. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -8. -10. -11. -12. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -4. -8. -21. -33. -43. -48. -50. -52. -50. -51. -51. -50. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.7 145.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1109.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.4% 1.1% 3.8% 3.7% 1.0% 2.1% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 0.4% 1.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 78 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##