* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 89 90 89 89 89 87 80 67 55 42 31 25 21 22 22 V (KT) LAND 90 88 89 90 89 89 89 87 80 67 55 42 31 25 21 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 87 88 89 89 86 80 66 54 45 37 31 28 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 12 15 16 22 25 26 11 18 18 18 13 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 1 1 4 4 6 3 14 5 3 0 -7 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 323 307 295 287 258 234 220 267 329 3 30 63 122 166 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.1 25.4 24.5 24.1 23.3 22.8 22.2 21.1 19.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 148 143 134 128 111 103 99 94 91 89 85 81 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 124 125 121 116 112 97 90 86 81 79 79 76 73 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.9 -53.9 -54.9 -54.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 38 39 38 36 36 35 40 34 33 31 29 30 36 32 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 26 28 27 30 32 34 32 26 21 15 10 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -54 -55 -46 -34 3 -4 -29 -39 -87 -108 -142 -112 -81 -76 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 1 4 27 23 29 55 38 -15 -103 -76 -39 2 27 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 9 10 14 3 12 16 -1 0 -1 0 9 10 10 -30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1629 1617 1608 1590 1549 1449 1397 1441 1599 1815 1894 1691 1427 1105 845 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.7 32.0 32.4 32.8 34.0 35.4 36.9 37.9 38.4 38.9 39.7 41.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.9 54.3 53.6 52.6 51.7 49.2 45.8 41.7 37.7 34.0 31.1 28.9 26.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 8 9 10 14 17 17 16 13 11 11 14 16 16 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 25 23 23 15 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -8. -15. -22. -29. -35. -40. -45. -51. -54. -56. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -0. -0. -0. 1. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 6. 8. 6. -3. -11. -20. -27. -31. -33. -31. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -10. -23. -35. -48. -59. -65. -69. -68. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.4 54.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 894.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 8.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.8% 2.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 11( 22) 11( 30) 11( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 88 89 90 89 89 89 87 80 67 55 42 31 25 21 22 22 18HR AGO 90 89 90 91 90 90 90 88 81 68 56 43 32 26 22 23 23 12HR AGO 90 87 86 87 86 86 86 84 77 64 52 39 28 22 18 19 19 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 79 79 79 77 70 57 45 32 21 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 71 69 62 49 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 88 79 73 70 67 67 65 58 45 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 88 89 80 74 70 70 68 61 48 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS