* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 112 108 104 95 89 82 78 74 70 68 65 66 65 64 63 V (KT) LAND 115 115 112 108 104 95 89 82 78 74 70 68 65 66 65 64 63 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 111 107 103 96 90 82 77 73 69 67 64 62 62 64 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 2 0 3 6 5 13 18 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 -2 1 4 1 0 -1 -4 -4 -6 -9 SHEAR DIR 82 82 95 96 95 124 111 133 156 112 159 176 216 241 248 256 264 SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.8 27.3 27.4 27.5 26.5 26.5 27.3 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.4 26.9 26.6 27.0 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 133 132 138 139 139 129 129 138 127 130 132 129 134 130 134 129 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 39 40 39 40 40 42 42 40 39 44 46 48 47 46 44 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 24 24 24 25 24 23 22 21 21 19 19 18 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 63 55 65 62 66 57 54 58 52 66 53 62 57 37 17 200 MB DIV -3 1 -8 -2 2 23 18 12 8 20 4 12 5 8 18 21 4 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 2 3 1 6 7 4 0 3 4 0 LAND (KM) 1874 1976 2081 2187 2108 1866 1614 1372 1117 850 585 340 190 161 208 390 594 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.7 20.5 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.9 131.2 132.4 133.6 134.8 137.1 139.5 141.8 144.2 146.7 149.2 151.7 154.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 3 9 11 15 3 4 9 1 4 9 3 23 4 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -32. -39. -45. -50. -53. -55. -56. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -4. -1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. -4. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -7. -11. -20. -26. -33. -37. -41. -45. -47. -50. -49. -50. -51. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.0 129.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1031.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 32 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##