* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082016 08/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 43 41 41 40 39 38 36 34 34 35 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 43 41 41 40 39 38 36 34 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 13 9 13 20 30 38 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -4 -5 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 185 220 255 265 258 275 265 261 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.8 27.8 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 147 146 149 135 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 120 119 118 119 124 113 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 7 5 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 50 51 55 59 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -43 -47 -36 -27 -48 -14 25 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 0 -13 -10 -9 -11 19 52 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 2 2 0 9 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 289 233 176 146 112 138 312 372 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.4 33.8 34.1 34.5 34.8 35.7 36.9 38.3 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.8 74.2 74.7 74.8 75.0 74.2 72.1 69.4 66.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 8 11 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 40 44 43 36 26 37 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 25. 25. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -28. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 13. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.4 73.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.54 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.62 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.5% 7.7% 5.1% 4.1% 6.6% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 18.9% 14.3% 4.5% 1.2% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 10.2% 7.3% 3.2% 1.8% 2.9% 2.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082016 EIGHT 08/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 38 42 43 41 41 40 39 38 36 34 34 35 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 36 40 41 39 39 38 37 36 34 32 32 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 36 37 35 35 34 33 32 30 28 28 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 28 29 27 27 26 25 24 22 20 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT