* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 94 98 99 98 91 81 72 63 60 58 59 58 59 60 61 61 V (KT) LAND 85 94 98 99 98 91 81 72 63 60 58 59 58 59 60 61 61 V (KT) LGEM 85 95 99 98 94 86 77 69 61 57 55 57 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 1 3 5 5 7 14 14 13 9 9 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 4 5 5 5 8 3 2 -4 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 341 73 167 198 237 241 251 253 251 219 248 172 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.8 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 130 128 127 131 132 139 142 145 147 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 42 40 39 39 37 37 39 42 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 19 20 19 18 16 14 13 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 34 37 36 9 5 14 29 34 53 57 57 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 30 36 30 11 5 17 28 10 -2 -17 -16 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 7 7 6 0 -2 0 0 3 -3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1127 1027 929 837 746 547 331 143 73 263 480 582 734 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.6 18.3 17.8 17.4 16.9 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.2 145.1 146.0 146.9 147.7 149.6 151.7 153.8 155.9 158.0 160.1 162.2 164.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 7 3 2 2 6 9 18 26 55 31 34 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. -20. -21. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 13. 14. 13. 6. -4. -13. -22. -24. -27. -26. -27. -26. -25. -24. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.0 144.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 13.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 11.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 6.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 783.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.04 -0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.85 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 72% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 71.9% 48.1% 47.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 52.2% 20.3% 38.8% 43.1% 16.7% 14.7% 1.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 41.6% 22.8% 28.6% 14.4% 5.6% 4.9% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##