* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 42 47 57 62 69 70 74 71 68 63 57 52 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 42 47 57 62 69 51 53 51 47 43 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 37 41 46 53 60 48 48 50 48 43 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 6 7 13 7 13 7 15 14 22 29 49 57 58 48 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -4 0 -4 -2 -4 -3 -4 0 2 1 4 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 318 333 310 263 273 259 271 265 261 240 237 237 239 230 228 227 232 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.3 30.5 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.9 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 164 170 169 169 167 168 170 171 172 154 156 155 147 134 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 146 155 156 147 144 145 148 154 165 135 135 134 126 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -52.2 -52.9 -53.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 65 62 64 62 64 61 64 53 44 41 42 41 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 12 10 13 13 15 15 17 17 18 20 19 14 850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 63 69 77 79 51 41 -12 20 1 21 15 48 52 40 12 200 MB DIV 29 41 48 22 12 26 24 29 21 24 22 24 -6 28 6 8 10 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -1 -4 -5 -1 4 2 8 9 -6 12 -1 7 11 31 27 LAND (KM) 65 102 150 216 286 351 439 365 248 128 -84 158 246 266 398 619 665 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.5 23.6 23.9 24.1 24.7 25.5 26.5 27.5 28.5 29.6 30.6 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.5 84.3 85.0 85.7 86.4 87.2 87.2 86.8 85.7 84.1 82.1 79.8 77.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 6 4 5 6 8 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 61 69 49 38 38 44 39 43 44 30 12 35 59 37 27 26 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -5. -14. -23. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -2. -0. -0. 2. 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 17. 27. 32. 39. 40. 44. 41. 38. 33. 27. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.4 83.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 79.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.82 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.5% 10.3% 6.8% 6.1% 9.2% 12.2% 22.5% Logistic: 4.8% 34.2% 18.3% 6.9% 3.8% 18.7% 37.1% 57.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% Consensus: 3.6% 17.3% 9.6% 4.6% 3.3% 9.3% 16.5% 26.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/29/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 36 42 47 57 62 69 51 53 51 47 43 36 31 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 40 45 55 60 67 49 51 49 45 41 34 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 35 40 50 55 62 44 46 44 40 36 29 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 27 32 42 47 54 36 38 36 32 28 21 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT