* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 75 76 76 77 77 75 74 74 72 71 69 67 66 63 V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 75 76 76 77 77 75 74 74 72 71 69 67 66 63 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 71 72 73 74 76 78 79 79 78 76 72 67 61 56 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 7 12 13 13 8 9 9 5 2 7 14 21 29 31 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -3 -4 -3 -3 -4 -1 2 4 3 3 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 264 55 61 65 70 79 77 124 113 162 230 240 245 231 232 210 213 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.2 27.6 27.4 26.4 27.0 27.1 26.6 26.6 27.0 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.4 26.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 137 141 139 129 135 135 130 130 134 125 128 131 129 134 134 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 44 42 39 41 40 39 41 40 40 40 42 47 51 51 50 50 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 20 23 23 24 24 25 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 59 54 52 54 54 60 61 69 75 79 71 62 54 53 32 30 5 200 MB DIV 11 13 13 4 18 9 -8 5 2 19 12 7 0 13 6 20 9 700-850 TADV 10 5 -2 -6 -1 -2 -3 0 1 0 5 4 11 13 20 26 18 LAND (KM) 1442 1531 1626 1728 1834 2066 2096 1845 1613 1382 1139 871 565 295 181 189 335 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.5 19.0 19.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.1 125.5 126.8 128.2 129.5 132.3 134.9 137.3 139.5 141.7 144.0 146.5 149.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 12 13 15 15 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 8 16 13 1 8 11 4 4 7 0 3 7 5 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.9 124.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 650.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.18 -1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.29 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 21.2% 19.4% 13.9% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 2.5% 2.8% 0.9% 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 7.9% 7.4% 4.9% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##