* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 103 101 99 93 93 93 88 85 82 74 67 62 53 45 43 V (KT) LAND 100 104 103 101 99 93 93 93 88 85 82 74 67 62 53 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 100 105 104 101 98 95 95 93 89 81 74 65 58 51 45 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 11 9 10 15 14 24 18 14 14 10 15 23 24 14 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 8 4 0 -2 1 1 4 10 8 11 7 2 3 1 7 SHEAR DIR 344 331 354 336 321 311 285 276 266 254 262 298 292 313 338 25 282 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.5 27.8 27.0 25.7 24.7 24.0 22.5 21.6 20.4 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 144 144 147 142 144 135 125 113 105 100 91 87 82 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 122 119 116 117 122 120 122 115 107 97 91 87 80 77 74 71 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 41 37 38 41 39 41 42 41 37 40 41 43 46 49 48 49 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 23 26 26 29 33 32 34 35 32 29 27 22 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -38 -38 -33 -49 -46 -28 -6 0 -6 -26 -53 -81 -125 -172 -120 -73 200 MB DIV 3 -16 -24 -10 13 -6 45 25 38 20 3 -42 -22 -72 -45 -9 7 700-850 TADV 3 0 2 3 7 8 9 4 14 25 21 23 22 19 15 34 32 LAND (KM) 1709 1676 1642 1625 1607 1574 1534 1439 1380 1355 1402 1539 1706 1861 1548 1287 1044 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.9 31.1 31.3 31.5 32.1 32.9 33.9 34.9 36.0 37.1 38.1 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 55.0 55.2 55.4 55.3 55.3 54.3 52.6 50.5 48.0 45.3 42.1 38.4 34.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 7 9 11 12 13 14 16 15 15 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 31 32 32 30 26 23 16 13 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -26. -33. -38. -43. -49. -54. -59. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -0. -0. 2. 6. 5. 6. 7. 3. -2. -5. -11. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. 1. -0. -7. -7. -7. -12. -15. -18. -26. -33. -38. -47. -55. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 30.6 55.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 980.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 17.2% 13.5% 12.2% 9.2% 3.0% 6.5% 4.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 31.0% 8.6% 5.8% 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.9% 7.4% 6.0% 4.1% 1.0% 2.2% 1.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 25( 42) 21( 54) 14( 60) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 104 103 101 99 93 93 93 88 85 82 74 67 62 53 45 43 18HR AGO 100 99 98 96 94 88 88 88 83 80 77 69 62 57 48 40 38 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 92 86 86 86 81 78 75 67 60 55 46 38 36 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 88 82 82 82 77 74 71 63 56 51 42 34 32 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 75 75 75 70 67 64 56 49 44 35 27 25 IN 6HR 100 104 95 89 86 82 82 82 77 74 71 63 56 51 42 34 32 IN 12HR 100 104 103 94 88 84 84 84 79 76 73 65 58 53 44 36 34