* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 82 81 80 78 75 74 73 73 71 70 69 68 66 64 V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 82 81 80 78 75 74 73 73 71 70 69 68 66 64 V (KT) LGEM 85 83 80 78 77 78 79 78 77 79 79 76 72 67 62 57 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 0 4 6 9 10 9 6 5 2 8 14 19 22 29 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 -4 -2 0 1 4 6 3 5 SHEAR DIR 195 123 218 93 66 89 105 80 103 72 197 255 247 259 240 242 224 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.4 26.9 26.9 26.3 26.8 26.7 25.7 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 139 136 137 137 129 134 133 127 132 131 121 128 129 130 134 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 43 44 42 38 37 36 39 44 45 43 43 46 52 53 55 53 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 21 21 23 24 23 23 24 24 24 23 23 21 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 66 55 56 67 66 57 71 69 51 31 45 51 55 53 48 200 MB DIV 11 4 4 3 2 41 7 -17 18 -6 8 5 20 4 24 5 17 700-850 TADV 8 6 8 6 -1 -2 -3 -3 1 1 3 9 8 15 13 15 23 LAND (KM) 1231 1335 1440 1533 1634 1852 2069 2094 1830 1579 1324 1069 805 532 300 173 139 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.5 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.6 122.9 124.2 125.6 127.0 129.8 132.4 134.9 137.4 139.8 142.2 144.6 147.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 6 5 9 10 2 6 8 2 7 3 0 2 4 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -24. -25. -27. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.9 121.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.91 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 770.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.05 -0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.30 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.6% 21.9% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 4.1% 7.3% 3.2% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 8.7% 9.5% 1.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##