* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESTER EP132016 08/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 101 100 98 94 88 84 80 77 75 73 70 68 66 63 59 V (KT) LAND 95 98 101 100 98 94 88 84 80 77 75 73 70 68 66 63 59 V (KT) LGEM 95 98 99 97 94 89 86 82 80 78 76 74 71 65 58 50 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 1 2 3 8 6 8 4 1 5 10 15 23 31 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 -4 -2 -3 0 2 6 7 2 2 SHEAR DIR 241 204 222 33 75 70 86 66 98 197 217 235 241 244 240 237 232 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.4 26.9 27.7 26.2 27.2 26.6 26.6 26.3 27.0 26.2 26.4 26.4 26.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 139 134 142 127 137 130 130 127 135 127 129 129 125 134 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 42 44 41 38 38 38 44 46 45 43 43 48 52 53 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 23 22 21 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 45 54 63 62 52 58 59 45 53 55 48 32 31 38 35 38 21 200 MB DIV 17 11 4 -6 0 21 -1 -13 -12 6 10 1 28 4 5 4 9 700-850 TADV 9 10 6 7 8 -3 0 -1 0 -1 3 7 11 13 19 23 24 LAND (KM) 1113 1208 1308 1412 1498 1706 1928 2155 1952 1700 1447 1183 920 640 408 281 279 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 18.9 19.1 19.4 20.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.5 122.7 124.1 125.4 128.2 131.0 133.7 136.2 138.6 141.0 143.5 146.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 6 4 15 0 9 4 6 2 8 0 3 3 0 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -30. -32. -33. -35. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 5. 3. -1. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -27. -29. -32. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.0 120.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.16 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 839.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.06 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 5.5% 15.1% 8.3% 9.0% 2.9% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.2% 1.9% 5.0% 2.8% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 LESTER 08/28/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##