* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 74 79 83 87 88 93 94 93 87 84 78 69 56 43 V (KT) LAND 60 65 70 74 79 83 87 88 93 94 93 87 84 78 69 56 43 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 69 75 80 87 87 86 88 87 85 79 71 61 52 43 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 3 4 7 9 8 8 9 12 24 31 36 44 46 51 51 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -3 1 4 4 4 4 1 -4 -2 -8 -3 -5 -3 -10 SHEAR DIR 264 237 289 5 54 349 2 313 295 283 276 272 282 291 296 294 300 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.2 27.8 28.4 26.9 25.5 23.3 21.8 20.6 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 152 152 149 149 147 139 135 144 126 112 97 90 85 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 131 129 127 121 121 121 118 116 124 109 99 87 81 77 75 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 11 11 10 11 9 10 8 9 7 7 6 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 47 47 43 42 43 40 40 39 44 43 43 40 44 49 55 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 22 23 25 26 27 27 31 34 34 34 37 38 39 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -32 -36 -50 -30 -16 -17 -24 -15 17 16 -29 -33 -50 -45 -57 -79 200 MB DIV 1 -1 2 -13 -9 -7 -12 12 39 9 27 4 27 13 31 27 -15 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -2 -1 0 1 5 6 2 7 11 20 38 24 20 11 LAND (KM) 1709 1683 1663 1655 1651 1617 1553 1512 1484 1425 1345 1317 1374 1532 1778 1443 1039 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.7 29.2 29.7 30.1 30.8 31.4 32.1 32.9 33.9 35.0 36.3 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 52.8 53.6 54.5 55.1 55.8 56.6 56.7 56.1 54.5 52.0 49.0 45.5 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 3 4 6 10 13 14 17 18 20 21 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 26 26 26 26 26 22 14 9 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -9. -15. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 10. 13. 14. 13. 15. 16. 14. 11. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 19. 23. 27. 28. 33. 34. 33. 27. 24. 18. 9. -4. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.1 52.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 504.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.40 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.38 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 22.5% 15.3% 14.1% 8.6% 15.6% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 28.1% 28.8% 15.5% 5.3% 10.8% 4.5% 1.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 3.8% 3.2% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 18.1% 15.8% 10.0% 4.6% 9.1% 6.1% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/27/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 7( 11) 9( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 70 74 79 83 87 88 93 94 93 87 84 78 69 56 43 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 73 77 81 82 87 88 87 81 78 72 63 50 37 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 65 69 73 74 79 80 79 73 70 64 55 42 29 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 59 63 64 69 70 69 63 60 54 45 32 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT