* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 61 64 68 72 73 80 84 86 86 85 84 78 68 59 49 V (KT) LAND 55 57 61 64 68 72 73 80 84 86 86 85 84 78 68 59 49 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 63 68 77 81 81 81 81 80 79 72 62 52 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 11 12 12 15 18 18 28 30 36 34 35 29 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -6 -5 -2 1 4 -2 -4 1 2 3 0 -3 -5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 241 263 261 295 343 6 5 336 329 305 294 278 275 279 282 301 338 SST (C) 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.5 27.1 26.8 25.2 23.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 151 152 152 151 147 144 144 139 139 144 126 123 108 95 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 131 130 128 124 119 116 119 116 117 121 106 104 93 84 79 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -53.5 -54.7 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 50 48 47 45 43 43 42 43 44 48 44 39 32 28 33 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 20 23 24 23 27 30 32 33 35 37 36 32 28 22 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -43 -37 -46 -59 -32 -24 -35 -21 -8 6 33 33 28 -11 -60 -68 200 MB DIV 0 1 0 5 -7 -2 -10 0 -4 44 16 31 15 -14 -11 -40 -54 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 1 0 7 10 9 9 11 6 6 3 -1 20 LAND (KM) 1783 1747 1719 1714 1713 1666 1599 1559 1533 1522 1445 1371 1331 1325 1360 1463 1627 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.0 30.8 31.4 31.9 32.4 33.0 33.8 34.8 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.5 53.4 54.0 54.7 55.5 55.7 55.5 54.6 53.0 51.0 48.8 46.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 4 3 3 6 8 10 11 11 12 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 24 26 27 30 28 24 20 12 12 13 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 2. 2. 1. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 13. 7. 1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 25. 29. 31. 31. 30. 29. 23. 13. 4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.6 51.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 441.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 17.6% 11.2% 8.3% 7.7% 10.6% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.9% 26.8% 24.1% 13.3% 5.6% 14.5% 6.5% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 15.4% 12.2% 7.3% 4.4% 8.4% 6.2% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/27/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 61 64 68 72 73 80 84 86 86 85 84 78 68 59 49 18HR AGO 55 54 58 61 65 69 70 77 81 83 83 82 81 75 65 56 46 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 58 62 63 70 74 76 76 75 74 68 58 49 39 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 53 54 61 65 67 67 66 65 59 49 40 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT