* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 58 62 65 72 79 83 89 95 94 96 92 94 88 81 77 V (KT) LAND 55 56 58 62 65 72 79 83 89 95 94 96 92 94 88 81 77 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 57 59 62 70 81 90 93 94 93 88 83 78 72 65 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 19 9 7 7 2 9 6 8 8 22 22 29 28 31 39 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 0 -2 -4 -1 -5 -1 -2 -6 -5 1 1 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 222 224 214 197 207 203 6 21 2 291 302 281 273 266 266 269 278 SST (C) 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.6 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 26.6 25.2 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 138 147 152 152 152 152 148 145 133 130 129 128 120 108 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 125 127 133 137 133 130 127 122 119 111 109 108 107 102 92 84 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -53.8 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -53.5 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 67 62 59 56 52 49 44 43 40 41 44 48 49 49 51 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 20 20 22 23 26 28 28 31 32 37 37 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -9 -1 6 -14 -13 -37 -28 -35 -26 -5 25 26 36 45 41 -17 200 MB DIV 20 20 33 25 8 23 -19 -4 3 5 -9 54 43 49 32 10 -4 700-850 TADV 32 25 15 0 3 1 -3 2 0 1 5 10 12 18 17 15 18 LAND (KM) 2023 1934 1857 1781 1717 1624 1593 1614 1574 1475 1420 1379 1292 1208 1129 1104 1137 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.4 25.4 26.2 26.9 28.1 29.1 30.1 31.1 32.1 33.1 34.1 35.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.2 49.4 50.6 51.8 53.9 55.4 56.4 56.9 56.9 55.9 54.0 52.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 5 8 10 10 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 23 32 34 31 24 27 24 20 18 11 6 5 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 10. 13. 12. 17. 16. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 17. 24. 28. 34. 40. 39. 41. 37. 39. 33. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.4 47.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 16.8% 10.7% 7.9% 7.3% 10.6% 12.3% 12.8% Logistic: 2.9% 11.3% 7.7% 5.9% 2.3% 11.3% 8.7% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 10.0% 6.4% 4.7% 3.2% 7.5% 7.2% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/26/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 2( 2) 4( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 58 62 65 72 79 83 89 95 94 96 92 94 88 81 77 18HR AGO 55 54 56 60 63 70 77 81 87 93 92 94 90 92 86 79 75 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 65 72 76 82 88 87 89 85 87 81 74 70 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 55 62 66 72 78 77 79 75 77 71 64 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT