* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 56 58 65 73 82 89 97 100 101 103 100 103 96 91 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 56 58 65 73 82 89 97 100 101 103 100 103 96 91 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 53 53 55 61 71 83 92 96 98 95 90 85 81 75 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 17 7 4 1 4 6 8 7 16 23 27 22 18 18 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 0 -1 -2 -5 -5 -7 -2 -3 -1 1 3 -2 2 6 SHEAR DIR 223 229 229 222 182 29 296 359 307 311 284 275 270 261 254 252 249 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.6 28.1 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.7 27.9 27.5 27.2 27.0 25.9 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 133 140 150 152 153 152 148 149 145 135 130 127 125 114 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 121 124 129 137 135 132 128 122 122 121 113 110 107 105 96 87 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -55.0 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -54.8 -53.7 -53.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 9 9 7 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 66 66 63 58 55 50 48 46 42 44 44 52 53 50 46 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 20 19 20 21 24 26 29 31 33 37 39 45 43 42 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -10 -6 -5 2 -10 -11 -12 -23 -11 -16 10 39 56 59 89 106 200 MB DIV 60 23 23 27 30 20 7 -1 -4 0 -11 51 57 72 55 47 56 700-850 TADV 35 30 21 11 -5 0 -3 -2 0 0 1 4 4 13 13 26 13 LAND (KM) 2031 2015 1934 1843 1766 1638 1581 1592 1620 1527 1450 1389 1344 1220 1132 1091 1100 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.3 24.4 25.3 26.2 27.5 28.6 29.7 30.6 31.4 32.4 33.5 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.9 47.0 48.2 49.5 50.8 53.2 55.0 56.2 57.0 57.3 56.8 55.5 53.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 11 9 7 5 5 7 8 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 5 9 22 32 37 26 28 25 21 20 18 13 6 4 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 10. 12. 13. 18. 18. 24. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 10. 18. 27. 34. 42. 45. 46. 48. 45. 48. 41. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.2 45.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.47 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.39 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 12.8% 8.4% 6.2% 5.5% 9.1% 10.9% 12.7% Logistic: 1.3% 6.0% 2.6% 2.0% 1.3% 6.9% 10.6% 12.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.5% 3.7% 2.7% 2.3% 5.4% 7.2% 8.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/26/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 56 58 65 73 82 89 97 100 101 103 100 103 96 91 18HR AGO 55 54 54 56 58 65 73 82 89 97 100 101 103 100 103 96 91 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 55 62 70 79 86 94 97 98 100 97 100 93 88 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 54 62 71 78 86 89 90 92 89 92 85 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT