* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THIRTEEN EP132016 08/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 57 66 73 82 86 90 92 90 84 84 85 83 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 57 66 73 82 86 90 92 90 84 84 85 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 50 56 62 67 71 76 79 79 73 69 69 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 15 7 3 4 2 7 10 14 18 15 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -1 0 1 0 2 2 -4 0 0 4 2 -2 1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 348 334 324 315 298 322 293 288 212 44 64 41 47 3 6 4 6 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.7 27.5 27.5 26.9 27.6 26.6 26.2 27.0 27.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 156 155 154 153 148 140 139 140 134 141 131 126 134 139 133 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.2 -52.7 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -53.0 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 68 67 64 60 58 57 54 50 50 51 53 55 63 65 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 15 15 19 22 23 27 28 30 32 32 29 30 31 31 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -11 -5 2 3 7 0 9 23 40 39 42 47 53 95 108 134 200 MB DIV 9 28 37 43 48 35 41 55 38 8 12 7 31 54 79 83 64 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 3 3 0 2 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 -1 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 720 774 779 770 771 805 867 955 1060 1241 1445 1642 1851 2064 2132 1895 1668 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 18.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.3 112.2 113.0 113.7 114.9 116.2 117.8 119.6 121.9 124.4 127.1 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 10 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 22 20 18 13 7 9 11 4 15 3 0 10 22 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 24. 26. 27. 24. 19. 18. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 27. 36. 43. 52. 56. 60. 62. 60. 54. 54. 55. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 110.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132016 THIRTEEN 08/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 21.9% 19.7% 14.8% 0.0% 16.7% 15.8% 19.9% Logistic: 4.2% 14.1% 7.6% 3.9% 2.4% 6.6% 8.4% 9.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% Consensus: 4.8% 14.5% 9.5% 6.3% 0.8% 7.9% 8.3% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132016 THIRTEEN 08/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##