* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 58 56 56 58 66 73 82 87 92 94 92 91 92 94 V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 58 56 56 58 66 73 82 87 92 94 92 91 92 94 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 59 58 56 57 62 72 85 92 96 94 88 85 84 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 23 23 31 20 6 5 4 5 11 14 16 15 13 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 4 1 -4 0 -3 -5 -5 -3 0 0 2 4 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 277 265 253 237 230 226 146 28 331 7 355 333 332 321 296 264 257 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.4 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.4 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 127 127 127 131 146 151 153 152 151 149 139 133 134 134 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 122 121 120 121 133 134 133 128 125 121 113 109 111 111 103 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.9 -54.8 -55.0 -54.2 -53.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 70 71 71 71 69 66 58 51 48 49 48 50 51 53 52 51 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 18 19 19 21 22 25 27 30 33 34 37 41 45 850 MB ENV VOR 37 23 15 7 0 -10 4 -6 -4 1 -13 -28 -30 -32 -18 41 83 200 MB DIV 66 65 68 84 55 22 15 12 19 -4 -7 5 24 38 64 85 19 700-850 TADV 3 7 15 18 23 15 -4 0 -4 -3 -2 4 4 5 10 13 -7 LAND (KM) 1890 1905 1936 1993 2056 1938 1769 1633 1572 1555 1560 1473 1398 1325 1282 1233 1178 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 19.2 20.2 21.4 22.5 24.8 26.6 27.9 29.0 29.9 30.8 31.5 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.6 43.8 44.9 46.0 48.3 51.0 53.6 55.6 57.1 58.0 58.4 58.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 12 9 7 5 4 4 5 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 10 5 5 25 35 25 28 25 24 20 13 10 12 14 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 16 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 14. 16. 19. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 6. 13. 22. 27. 32. 34. 32. 31. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.1 41.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.6% 7.8% 5.8% 4.9% 6.8% 6.3% 7.9% Logistic: 0.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 2.1% 3.5% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 4.6% 2.8% 2.1% 1.8% 3.0% 3.3% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/25/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 59 58 56 56 58 66 73 82 87 92 94 92 91 92 94 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 56 56 58 66 73 82 87 92 94 92 91 92 94 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 53 53 55 63 70 79 84 89 91 89 88 89 91 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 48 50 58 65 74 79 84 86 84 83 84 86 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT