* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 67 67 64 63 70 79 83 88 90 90 90 90 92 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 67 67 64 63 70 79 83 88 90 90 90 90 92 V (KT) LGEM 60 63 65 66 68 68 64 62 65 74 86 94 96 95 94 92 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 10 12 19 25 16 5 5 11 9 17 15 24 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 4 5 4 3 -1 -3 -6 -2 -4 0 1 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 331 331 333 313 278 249 229 188 168 18 338 323 311 296 294 296 278 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.9 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.0 27.6 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 125 127 125 127 126 133 151 150 152 151 150 149 147 149 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 127 122 123 121 122 119 123 136 131 128 125 122 121 122 123 112 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 68 69 68 70 64 60 56 56 55 55 55 61 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 22 25 26 28 31 33 35 39 43 850 MB ENV VOR 97 85 69 51 33 22 13 13 4 7 -2 -3 -4 8 17 53 89 200 MB DIV 25 53 76 73 80 109 25 21 -2 36 12 41 2 37 0 101 65 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 -1 9 23 25 12 -2 -4 -7 3 -1 6 9 18 20 LAND (KM) 1864 1818 1787 1785 1780 1860 1937 1786 1688 1647 1673 1719 1647 1603 1584 1559 1518 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.0 20.2 22.6 24.8 26.7 28.2 29.5 30.5 31.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.3 40.6 41.8 43.0 45.3 47.6 49.9 52.0 53.7 54.7 55.0 55.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 14 12 9 6 5 3 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 8 13 14 6 9 25 34 25 28 28 28 24 21 19 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -0. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 3. 10. 19. 23. 28. 30. 30. 30. 30. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 38.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 291.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.33 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 18.1% 11.7% 8.3% 7.5% 9.8% 9.3% 8.9% Logistic: 2.8% 4.9% 3.5% 1.9% 0.4% 1.8% 1.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.5% 7.7% 5.8% 3.4% 2.7% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072016 GASTON 08/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/24/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 66 67 67 64 63 70 79 83 88 90 90 90 90 92 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 64 64 61 60 67 76 80 85 87 87 87 87 89 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 59 56 55 62 71 75 80 82 82 82 82 84 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 51 48 47 54 63 67 72 74 74 74 74 76 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT