* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 71 78 84 92 93 86 82 81 80 81 86 88 89 89 86 V (KT) LAND 55 63 71 78 84 92 93 86 82 81 80 81 86 88 89 89 86 V (KT) LGEM 55 64 72 79 85 91 88 81 75 72 73 81 93 99 99 96 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 3 7 7 23 33 29 17 10 10 11 15 24 24 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 3 2 6 4 3 0 0 -2 -1 0 1 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 89 85 134 213 273 247 245 238 225 212 233 254 273 281 280 284 283 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 28.3 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 130 129 127 126 127 128 130 142 150 150 151 151 150 142 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 132 129 127 126 121 122 120 121 128 132 129 126 125 124 117 108 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 65 65 65 64 65 66 64 62 60 59 55 58 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 25 25 28 28 27 27 30 30 32 36 40 42 45 46 850 MB ENV VOR 132 126 121 111 105 65 35 28 32 30 22 12 25 25 42 36 80 200 MB DIV 43 29 35 63 100 102 97 74 37 18 12 20 41 23 31 15 82 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -1 0 3 13 24 33 29 7 0 2 8 3 13 15 33 LAND (KM) 1752 1912 1973 1901 1843 1809 1836 1939 1843 1728 1682 1697 1759 1733 1665 1582 1503 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.8 19.6 21.7 23.7 25.6 27.3 28.7 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.7 35.3 36.8 38.2 39.7 42.3 44.6 46.8 48.9 50.9 52.5 53.5 53.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 16 16 14 15 14 14 12 9 7 6 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 15 9 16 8 6 23 31 28 25 26 24 21 16 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 7. 7. 8. 14. 16. 18. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 23. 29. 37. 38. 31. 27. 26. 25. 26. 31. 33. 34. 34. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.5 33.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 6.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 4.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.61 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 52.4% 40.1% 27.3% 18.1% 40.1% 27.3% 12.2% Logistic: 17.9% 36.0% 23.8% 6.5% 2.3% 8.3% 7.6% 5.1% Bayesian: 27.8% 48.9% 29.7% 5.1% 4.5% 16.5% 4.5% 0.1% Consensus: 22.8% 45.7% 31.2% 13.0% 8.3% 21.6% 13.1% 5.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 9( 13) 13( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 71 78 84 92 93 86 82 81 80 81 86 88 89 89 86 18HR AGO 55 54 62 69 75 83 84 77 73 72 71 72 77 79 80 80 77 12HR AGO 55 52 51 58 64 72 73 66 62 61 60 61 66 68 69 69 66 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 51 59 60 53 49 48 47 48 53 55 56 56 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT