* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 26 31 37 44 48 53 59 62 65 68 69 70 73 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 26 31 37 44 48 53 59 62 65 68 69 70 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 25 27 30 33 37 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 7 5 5 11 17 13 11 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 0 4 2 0 -2 1 -2 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 338 20 41 353 337 238 268 267 320 302 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 158 160 165 164 158 157 157 156 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 144 140 140 144 138 131 130 128 127 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 61 62 59 59 58 54 52 48 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -17 -3 -16 -11 11 0 11 6 -13 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 16 7 -5 -5 26 0 -6 -8 -1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 2 1 0 -2 -2 -8 -2 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 848 873 874 883 904 981 885 796 731 674 623 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.3 26.7 27.2 27.6 28.5 29.1 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.0 65.0 66.0 66.9 67.8 69.1 69.9 70.5 71.0 71.5 71.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 42 40 43 54 49 42 37 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 736 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 34. 37. 40. 43. 44. 45. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.9 64.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.75 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 14.2% 9.2% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 11.0% 7.4% 2.7% 0.8% 3.4% 6.4% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 8.4% 5.5% 3.0% 0.3% 1.1% 5.6% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/23/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 24 24 26 31 37 44 48 53 59 62 65 68 69 70 73 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 26 31 37 44 48 53 59 62 65 68 69 70 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 23 28 34 41 45 50 56 59 62 65 66 67 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 35 39 44 50 53 56 59 60 61 64 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT