* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL072016 08/23/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 62 67 75 80 81 78 78 77 81 81 88 88 88 90 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 62 67 75 80 81 78 78 77 81 81 88 88 88 90 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 58 64 70 79 83 79 73 68 67 70 80 91 96 97 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 4 1 4 14 24 33 23 17 9 10 8 16 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -2 4 4 6 7 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 100 76 75 81 261 303 261 248 239 211 216 233 283 286 284 282 289 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.6 28.4 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 131 128 127 125 127 127 133 143 149 149 151 151 152 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 135 130 127 124 120 121 119 122 128 130 126 126 126 126 121 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.2 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 1.3 1.5 1.9 1.8 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 69 69 68 66 65 67 66 64 62 60 58 58 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 22 23 25 27 28 28 28 29 29 31 32 38 39 41 45 850 MB ENV VOR 128 127 120 110 105 75 42 33 25 34 17 26 17 30 27 33 57 200 MB DIV 56 45 29 40 77 117 108 95 59 43 -5 27 18 53 37 48 10 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -2 0 2 16 30 36 24 5 0 7 5 9 17 18 LAND (KM) 1536 1690 1846 1962 1935 1846 1846 1879 1941 1801 1706 1664 1683 1734 1809 1723 1615 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.3 14.9 16.4 18.3 20.2 22.2 24.2 25.9 27.4 28.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.6 33.1 34.6 36.0 37.4 40.0 42.4 44.9 47.2 49.5 51.3 52.8 53.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 8 5 5 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 12 13 8 16 6 7 23 33 28 25 26 24 22 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 7. 6. 9. 8. 15. 15. 16. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 22. 31. 35. 36. 33. 33. 32. 36. 36. 43. 43. 43. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.9 31.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 GASTON 08/23/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 10.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 37.5% 27.0% 12.6% 8.2% 20.0% 26.9% 15.6% Logistic: 13.7% 48.2% 33.7% 11.4% 6.1% 16.6% 8.4% 10.7% Bayesian: 9.2% 33.5% 9.9% 0.9% 0.6% 8.2% 15.1% 1.9% Consensus: 10.9% 39.7% 23.5% 8.3% 5.0% 14.9% 16.8% 9.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 GASTON 08/23/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 5( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 56 62 67 75 80 81 78 78 77 81 81 88 88 88 90 18HR AGO 45 44 49 55 60 68 73 74 71 71 70 74 74 81 81 81 83 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 52 60 65 66 63 63 62 66 66 73 73 73 75 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 48 53 54 51 51 50 54 54 61 61 61 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT