* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072016 08/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 52 58 70 75 82 80 76 78 82 84 87 89 90 89 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 52 58 70 75 82 80 76 78 82 84 87 89 90 89 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 51 61 70 74 71 65 62 63 71 81 90 95 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 10 5 3 6 24 35 33 19 7 8 12 18 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -2 -2 6 6 1 4 3 0 -4 -2 1 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 101 96 87 87 90 294 255 253 236 229 215 225 292 281 285 280 265 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.9 27.1 27.7 28.5 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 136 132 127 127 125 127 134 145 151 150 149 152 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 141 140 136 132 125 123 120 121 126 133 134 128 125 127 125 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 70 72 72 73 72 70 70 68 70 67 64 61 60 63 63 65 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 23 24 25 28 27 30 30 29 32 34 34 38 41 44 47 850 MB ENV VOR 123 124 128 130 129 100 61 46 53 52 58 40 45 42 60 85 104 200 MB DIV 86 86 73 73 74 71 93 105 84 42 7 19 42 55 68 88 88 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -2 6 16 37 27 10 0 1 10 13 25 19 LAND (KM) 1366 1524 1684 1831 1943 1888 1842 1828 1888 1831 1669 1574 1568 1616 1683 1765 1757 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.6 14.1 15.6 17.3 19.0 20.9 22.9 24.7 26.2 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.9 31.4 33.0 34.4 35.9 38.6 41.2 43.7 46.2 48.8 51.1 53.0 54.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 13 9 6 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 16 12 12 14 12 11 5 24 25 33 25 25 26 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 12. 11. 10. 13. 15. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 35. 40. 47. 45. 41. 43. 47. 49. 52. 54. 55. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.4 29.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072016 SEVEN 08/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.7% 11.5% 7.3% 6.6% 10.2% 15.6% 14.6% Logistic: 6.3% 30.9% 15.4% 5.1% 2.9% 8.7% 12.7% 9.6% Bayesian: 2.1% 26.5% 7.2% 0.5% 0.5% 5.6% 19.2% 1.8% Consensus: 4.8% 25.3% 11.4% 4.3% 3.3% 8.2% 15.9% 8.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072016 SEVEN 08/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 46 52 58 70 75 82 80 76 78 82 84 87 89 90 89 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 52 64 69 76 74 70 72 76 78 81 83 84 83 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 55 60 67 65 61 63 67 69 72 74 75 74 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 43 48 55 53 49 51 55 57 60 62 63 62 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT