* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 34 39 45 50 52 55 57 60 63 64 66 66 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 34 39 45 50 52 55 57 60 63 64 66 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 36 39 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 17 15 12 10 5 17 18 17 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 -1 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 289 313 348 10 355 275 271 268 297 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 157 158 158 161 161 158 154 152 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 140 140 138 139 136 132 127 124 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 50 54 58 60 62 60 57 53 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -35 -36 -31 -21 -17 -11 -11 0 0 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -8 -6 -1 13 -5 29 -9 45 -21 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 1 0 1 -1 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 897 871 861 880 910 955 1024 990 890 817 740 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.2 26.6 27.6 28.6 29.5 30.4 31.1 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.7 61.8 62.9 63.8 64.7 66.2 67.3 68.0 68.5 68.8 69.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 44 43 38 38 41 44 34 28 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 829 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 22. 25. 27. 30. 33. 34. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.9 60.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.43 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.74 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.54 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 11.0% 7.1% 5.0% 4.1% 7.3% 10.0% 12.3% Logistic: 2.8% 9.4% 6.1% 5.6% 2.3% 13.2% 17.8% 25.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 6.9% 4.4% 3.5% 2.1% 6.8% 9.3% 12.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 32 34 39 45 50 52 55 57 60 63 64 66 66 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 31 33 38 44 49 51 54 56 59 62 63 65 65 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 29 34 40 45 47 50 52 55 58 59 61 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 28 34 39 41 44 46 49 52 53 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT