* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 32 34 40 42 45 45 47 50 53 54 55 57 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 32 34 40 42 45 45 47 50 53 54 55 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 25 26 28 30 32 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 22 17 16 14 8 9 12 20 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 2 1 3 2 1 0 -1 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 288 301 309 341 23 354 255 270 269 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 157 158 158 161 159 156 152 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 143 140 140 137 138 134 129 124 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.1 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 45 50 53 57 62 61 58 55 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -45 -32 -36 -35 -9 -14 -11 -18 -7 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -10 -23 -10 2 12 8 16 11 9 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 970 925 892 882 886 950 1003 1070 955 905 845 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.9 25.3 25.7 26.1 27.0 28.1 29.1 30.1 30.8 31.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.1 60.3 61.4 62.4 63.4 65.0 66.3 67.3 67.9 67.9 68.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 32 42 45 40 37 42 37 29 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 826 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 4. 10. 12. 15. 15. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.5 59.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.34 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.26 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.41 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.1% 7.0% 5.3% 0.0% 7.5% 9.1% 11.1% Logistic: 1.0% 2.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 1.5% 1.9% 5.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.5% 2.9% 2.2% 0.1% 3.0% 3.7% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 29 29 32 34 40 42 45 45 47 50 53 54 55 57 18HR AGO 30 29 28 29 29 32 34 40 42 45 45 47 50 53 54 55 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 32 38 40 43 43 45 48 51 52 53 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 25 31 33 36 36 38 41 44 45 46 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT