* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/20/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 33 32 32 33 33 35 34 36 38 39 40 42 44 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 33 32 32 33 33 35 34 36 38 39 40 42 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 30 28 26 24 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 28 25 25 26 27 25 17 23 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 4 6 7 4 5 1 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 257 273 280 278 285 296 324 359 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.6 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 132 134 138 146 154 154 156 159 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 123 124 125 128 136 142 139 137 139 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 39 38 39 42 49 57 65 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -3 -15 -33 -47 -43 -59 -39 -24 -14 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 1 -5 -20 -15 -35 -20 -11 7 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 17 16 16 21 7 5 1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1751 1729 1671 1594 1480 1271 1091 984 963 1010 1073 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.1 27.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.2 48.4 49.6 50.9 52.1 54.6 57.2 59.6 61.5 62.8 64.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 10 15 17 23 24 24 28 50 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 47.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.08 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 344.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.7% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/20/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 33 33 32 32 33 33 35 34 36 38 39 40 42 44 18HR AGO 35 34 33 32 32 31 31 32 32 34 33 35 37 38 39 41 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 29 29 30 30 32 31 33 35 36 37 39 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 25 25 27 26 28 30 31 32 34 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT