* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/20/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 34 35 35 36 39 43 48 51 53 56 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 34 35 35 36 39 43 48 51 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 32 30 28 26 25 24 25 25 28 31 36 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 24 22 22 25 25 22 22 22 21 16 12 20 23 17 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 5 6 3 7 4 3 4 1 -3 -1 -3 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 239 245 257 272 279 280 293 302 330 16 11 7 299 260 265 253 256 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.7 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 132 132 135 138 148 154 153 156 157 153 152 151 150 145 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 124 124 126 128 137 139 136 136 135 131 128 126 122 117 111 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 45 40 40 39 39 37 39 43 51 58 64 66 64 61 57 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 12 10 9 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 19 6 5 -2 -23 -42 -43 -54 -46 -41 -30 -35 -44 -29 -39 -36 -35 200 MB DIV -6 1 5 0 -19 -31 -23 -25 -25 13 10 33 -3 23 -9 15 -3 700-850 TADV 10 13 16 14 14 15 3 6 2 6 -1 4 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1693 1694 1693 1628 1573 1360 1159 1026 971 969 1032 1150 1268 1267 1205 1156 1115 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.0 20.5 21.0 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.1 26.0 27.1 28.4 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.3 48.4 49.6 50.8 53.3 55.8 58.0 59.8 61.2 62.2 62.7 63.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 13 17 25 19 25 29 47 40 27 28 29 31 26 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. -1. 0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 46.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.24 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.1% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.6% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/20/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/20/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 36 35 35 36 34 35 35 36 39 43 48 51 53 56 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 33 33 34 32 33 33 34 37 41 46 49 51 54 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 30 31 29 30 30 31 34 38 43 46 48 51 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 25 23 24 24 25 28 32 37 40 42 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT