* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAY EP122016 08/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 44 47 50 50 50 50 48 44 41 39 42 44 46 49 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 44 47 50 50 50 50 48 44 41 39 42 44 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 43 41 40 38 35 31 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 10 12 10 9 10 10 12 10 10 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -2 0 1 -2 0 -1 5 2 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 61 48 48 51 55 63 68 99 106 114 69 102 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 142 141 140 138 136 132 128 129 128 125 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 4 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 65 66 64 64 61 61 57 56 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 12 11 11 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -10 -14 -9 -6 -6 -8 -1 -16 -37 -52 -68 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 31 28 35 32 27 -29 -7 -9 -10 -19 -11 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -2 -6 -7 -2 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 472 434 401 378 359 340 339 343 332 342 377 471 558 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.5 111.8 112.0 112.2 112.5 112.8 113.2 113.7 114.4 115.3 116.5 117.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 2 2 3 3 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 15. 15. 15. 13. 9. 6. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.8 111.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122016 KAY 08/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 21.2% 19.0% 14.0% 9.9% 15.9% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 17.4% 6.8% 3.4% 1.7% 3.9% 2.0% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.6% 13.0% 8.6% 5.8% 3.9% 6.6% 5.7% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122016 KAY 08/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##