* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/19/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 39 37 36 35 34 37 37 38 40 41 42 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 38 39 37 36 35 34 37 37 38 40 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 39 38 37 34 32 30 28 27 28 29 31 33 34 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 16 20 23 25 24 27 23 23 20 22 25 22 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 3 6 3 2 7 6 0 3 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 205 215 226 231 243 266 271 276 293 304 330 359 5 7 322 294 286 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.7 28.0 28.0 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 127 129 130 133 137 137 145 151 152 152 152 152 154 151 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 119 121 122 125 128 126 131 133 132 130 129 128 126 122 121 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 12 11 12 11 11 10 10 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 46 45 44 42 39 36 37 43 50 54 58 57 59 55 51 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 9 10 8 8 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 27 14 2 -20 -47 -63 -79 -91 -94 -69 -53 -30 -17 -24 -42 200 MB DIV 18 25 7 -8 0 -3 -26 -32 -28 -46 -12 -14 32 20 -3 -28 -1 700-850 TADV 6 6 5 7 13 15 21 12 17 6 5 -1 -1 -2 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 1745 1726 1714 1712 1716 1676 1548 1364 1245 1212 1211 1243 1300 1380 1453 1463 1397 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.5 21.6 22.8 23.9 25.2 26.3 27.3 28.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.0 43.9 44.9 45.9 46.9 49.0 51.3 53.5 55.3 56.6 57.7 58.5 59.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 9 8 7 6 6 6 4 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 14 10 9 10 13 19 26 21 24 24 28 27 24 23 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. -19. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.6 43.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.44 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 343.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.5% 7.1% 5.1% 4.2% 6.6% 6.5% 4.8% Logistic: 2.1% 3.9% 3.0% 1.6% 0.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.8% 3.4% 2.3% 1.6% 2.5% 2.4% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/19/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 39 39 38 39 37 36 35 34 37 37 38 40 41 42 18HR AGO 40 39 38 38 38 37 38 36 35 34 33 36 36 37 39 40 41 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 35 36 34 33 32 31 34 34 35 37 38 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 30 28 27 26 25 28 28 29 31 32 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT