* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/19/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 42 42 42 42 38 38 37 38 40 42 43 45 49 51 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 42 42 42 42 38 38 37 38 40 42 43 45 49 51 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 40 40 37 34 31 30 30 30 33 36 39 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 12 19 24 22 23 26 21 14 14 15 17 19 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 7 3 5 8 8 2 7 0 3 -2 -1 -2 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 194 210 210 212 237 256 273 267 267 292 306 332 12 7 7 9 351 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.0 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 124 125 129 125 130 135 139 149 150 151 151 151 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 117 116 117 119 115 118 122 124 130 129 129 127 126 125 125 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 57 52 49 46 44 42 41 41 42 44 50 53 59 60 59 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 12 11 11 11 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 26 25 37 32 21 1 -20 -61 -75 -92 -90 -92 -71 -58 -57 -32 7 200 MB DIV 2 13 34 36 20 0 -4 -8 -38 -28 -34 -6 -8 11 13 19 15 700-850 TADV 4 5 8 7 8 11 14 22 9 16 7 7 3 4 -1 0 2 LAND (KM) 1794 1775 1756 1746 1743 1765 1751 1643 1505 1396 1350 1344 1381 1455 1535 1638 1714 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.9 21.1 22.2 23.2 24.2 25.3 26.3 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.4 42.3 43.1 44.0 44.9 46.7 48.6 50.5 52.2 53.8 55.0 55.9 56.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 17 12 9 8 7 16 19 28 24 23 23 21 21 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.9 41.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.1% 9.3% 6.6% 5.8% 7.8% 7.9% 6.0% Logistic: 4.9% 7.8% 6.1% 2.8% 0.9% 2.8% 1.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.8% 5.5% 3.1% 2.2% 3.5% 3.0% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/19/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/19/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 43 42 42 42 42 38 38 37 38 40 42 43 45 49 51 18HR AGO 40 39 41 40 40 40 40 36 36 35 36 38 40 41 43 47 49 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 35 35 35 31 31 30 31 33 35 36 38 42 44 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 30 26 26 25 26 28 30 31 33 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT