* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL062016 08/18/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 48 47 48 49 48 49 54 56 61 64 69 74 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 48 47 48 49 48 49 54 56 61 64 69 74 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 45 46 47 47 46 45 43 42 42 44 49 55 62 69 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 9 11 9 12 18 19 19 17 16 7 10 12 15 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 2 3 3 5 5 4 6 5 3 4 2 0 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 185 171 172 186 200 224 239 254 259 254 267 282 272 347 360 20 54 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.3 27.3 27.8 27.7 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 124 125 125 124 128 128 134 133 141 147 151 154 155 154 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 115 116 117 116 115 119 118 124 122 128 133 135 135 132 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 60 57 58 56 54 46 43 40 40 38 44 44 51 59 60 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 15 14 13 12 12 12 10 9 10 10 12 13 15 17 850 MB ENV VOR 42 31 30 30 31 24 19 11 -12 -43 -43 -53 -35 -28 -13 12 26 200 MB DIV -16 -3 13 23 30 34 5 28 7 -20 -24 4 -7 15 6 24 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 4 5 8 10 10 11 9 4 5 1 2 1 1 LAND (KM) 1827 1802 1783 1765 1743 1717 1709 1715 1625 1470 1309 1185 1112 1109 1143 1197 1253 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.1 22.1 23.1 24.1 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.6 40.4 41.3 42.1 42.9 44.5 46.4 48.3 50.2 52.2 54.2 56.1 57.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 8 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 15 17 10 9 9 20 17 25 21 23 31 36 29 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -12. -13. -10. -10. -7. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 14. 16. 21. 24. 29. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 39.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.76 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.3% 10.1% 7.2% 6.2% 9.0% 10.7% 10.5% Logistic: 5.7% 15.8% 13.2% 6.8% 2.2% 5.0% 1.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 1.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 11.0% 8.6% 4.7% 2.9% 4.9% 4.1% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062016 FIONA 08/18/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062016 FIONA 08/18/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 45 46 48 47 48 49 48 49 54 56 61 64 69 74 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 45 44 45 46 45 46 51 53 58 61 66 71 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 40 39 40 41 40 41 46 48 53 56 61 66 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 32 33 34 33 34 39 41 46 49 54 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT