* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 54 54 51 47 44 37 32 27 22 19 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 54 54 51 47 44 37 32 27 22 19 20 21 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 52 52 48 43 36 31 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 11 11 14 21 21 27 24 21 22 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 2 4 5 0 -2 3 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 246 235 250 236 229 229 221 225 232 243 258 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.2 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 146 145 144 126 127 128 129 129 126 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 57 55 56 57 54 52 46 41 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 16 15 15 13 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 1 5 0 -4 1 7 16 12 22 18 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 50 58 52 44 10 33 13 -8 2 2 -6 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 0 3 4 3 6 4 4 6 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2184 2235 2289 2217 2116 1923 1743 1568 1397 1218 1029 811 596 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.3 133.2 134.1 135.0 136.7 138.3 139.9 141.5 143.2 145.0 147.1 149.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 34 33 27 21 17 1 2 3 4 3 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -3. -6. -13. -18. -23. -28. -31. -30. -29. -29. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.4 131.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.46 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 -3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 26.3% 24.8% 18.8% 14.0% 19.2% 13.9% 10.2% Logistic: 3.7% 7.1% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 11.7% 9.9% 7.0% 5.0% 6.8% 4.8% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##