* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 49 49 48 46 42 35 31 27 24 25 27 27 27 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 48 49 49 48 46 42 35 31 27 24 25 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 46 45 43 40 36 30 26 22 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 8 9 12 20 20 26 21 19 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 1 6 6 4 -2 -2 0 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 273 247 230 255 223 243 214 224 233 243 260 265 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.5 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.8 26.4 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 148 147 146 146 138 124 128 128 131 127 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 60 60 59 57 55 57 56 54 50 43 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -4 2 6 0 -3 -1 8 12 13 12 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 25 53 64 44 24 36 19 -8 -7 3 9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 0 -1 2 2 4 5 3 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2128 2183 2241 2298 2234 2040 1856 1679 1516 1345 1155 957 771 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.1 18.5 18.8 18.9 18.8 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.3 131.3 132.2 133.1 134.0 135.7 137.3 138.9 140.4 142.0 143.8 145.7 147.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 34 36 36 30 21 13 0 3 3 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -10. -14. -18. -21. -20. -18. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 130.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.60 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 25.3% 23.8% 17.8% 13.5% 19.5% 16.4% 12.1% Logistic: 2.3% 8.4% 4.4% 2.1% 0.8% 2.5% 1.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 11.4% 9.4% 6.6% 4.8% 7.3% 5.9% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##