* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 48 49 52 53 53 47 43 39 33 30 26 24 25 26 V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 48 49 52 53 53 47 43 39 33 30 26 24 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 46 47 46 45 42 37 32 28 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 5 7 7 14 17 22 21 20 22 23 30 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 0 3 6 5 2 0 2 1 3 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 287 285 245 221 247 218 224 212 229 245 264 253 251 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 26.9 26.3 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.2 26.4 26.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 148 147 146 145 132 126 130 129 130 126 128 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 60 60 56 56 57 55 52 46 40 39 36 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 17 16 17 17 17 15 14 13 10 9 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -15 -6 -1 2 -4 -2 2 14 15 26 25 24 15 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 12 25 52 64 25 13 33 21 -11 -4 1 -3 0 -39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 4 5 6 2 2 1 4 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2053 2116 2183 2241 2302 2144 1960 1790 1614 1432 1240 1028 798 568 340 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.2 130.2 131.2 132.2 133.1 134.8 136.4 137.9 139.5 141.2 143.0 145.0 147.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 39 36 36 38 24 19 6 1 5 5 3 1 3 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 2. -2. -6. -12. -15. -19. -21. -20. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.9 129.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.35 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 26.5% 19.0% 17.4% 13.1% 19.6% 17.1% 13.5% Logistic: 0.6% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 1.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 10.0% 6.7% 6.0% 4.4% 6.9% 6.2% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##