* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 50 54 57 60 57 55 50 44 41 36 32 26 22 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 50 54 57 60 57 55 50 44 41 36 32 26 22 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 43 44 46 47 47 46 42 37 33 28 24 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 9 8 6 7 10 12 15 21 24 27 28 32 36 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 2 4 5 2 3 5 2 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 325 295 266 276 294 300 267 244 255 228 233 223 228 239 243 244 246 SST (C) 28.3 27.6 28.5 28.9 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.0 27.1 26.4 26.7 26.2 26.1 25.6 26.0 26.5 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 141 150 154 152 146 143 144 134 127 130 124 124 119 123 129 132 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 63 62 60 58 55 54 54 54 51 49 46 43 39 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 17 17 18 20 18 20 18 16 15 14 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -25 -18 -8 -6 -3 -2 -12 -3 11 13 29 31 30 26 11 0 200 MB DIV 13 12 22 32 29 51 28 45 33 22 18 5 10 -3 -1 1 -12 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 -3 -2 0 0 0 5 5 8 9 7 0 1 -2 LAND (KM) 1765 1868 1955 2032 2113 2245 2193 1994 1802 1625 1449 1288 1119 930 721 491 251 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.9 128.2 129.4 130.5 132.5 134.3 136.1 137.8 139.4 141.0 142.5 144.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 9 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 10 29 40 34 31 19 19 8 2 3 1 0 0 0 3 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. 18. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 6. 4. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 17. 15. 10. 4. 1. -4. -8. -14. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 125.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 25.3% 23.2% 17.2% 13.0% 20.0% 22.4% 22.3% Logistic: 9.9% 25.2% 12.5% 7.5% 6.0% 7.5% 3.1% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 7.2% 18.4% 12.0% 8.3% 6.4% 9.3% 8.7% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##