* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVETTE EP102016 08/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 48 51 58 61 63 62 62 57 54 50 46 43 38 33 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 48 51 58 61 63 62 62 57 54 50 46 43 38 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 44 45 48 51 52 52 51 47 42 38 34 30 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 6 7 9 11 5 6 9 9 11 13 20 24 23 30 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -2 -2 -3 -3 0 1 1 4 3 4 6 0 6 4 0 SHEAR DIR 359 342 318 292 293 330 290 273 248 258 207 216 219 244 239 244 249 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 27.6 28.3 28.9 28.6 28.1 28.0 27.8 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.5 25.7 26.1 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 141 148 154 151 145 144 142 130 131 129 128 120 125 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 65 64 62 62 58 56 55 56 54 50 43 40 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 17 17 19 19 20 20 21 19 19 16 15 13 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -39 -27 -17 -9 -7 -4 -12 -14 -4 7 11 23 20 33 11 2 200 MB DIV 19 18 16 22 37 41 33 38 52 27 23 -1 -8 5 9 12 -14 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 0 -3 -6 0 0 1 4 9 8 9 7 3 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1668 1767 1871 1962 2045 2191 2311 2089 1887 1675 1499 1325 1143 931 711 470 240 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.4 126.7 128.0 129.2 131.4 133.3 135.3 137.1 139.0 140.6 142.2 143.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 10 28 45 35 30 20 17 3 4 3 3 0 0 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 7. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 21. 23. 22. 22. 17. 14. 10. 6. 3. -2. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.6 124.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 24.6% 22.6% 16.8% 12.6% 19.2% 21.5% 30.4% Logistic: 1.1% 4.5% 1.8% 1.0% 0.5% 1.9% 3.9% 3.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 9.9% 8.1% 5.9% 4.4% 7.0% 8.5% 11.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102016 IVETTE 08/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##