* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HOWARD EP092016 08/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 52 49 47 43 41 39 38 35 31 31 31 30 29 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 52 49 47 43 41 39 38 35 31 31 31 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 54 53 48 43 41 39 38 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 6 6 12 13 17 16 20 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 1 3 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 236 229 210 201 237 200 243 244 235 238 269 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.1 25.5 25.2 24.9 23.4 24.2 24.2 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.7 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 126 120 117 114 98 106 106 113 115 117 121 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.9 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 3 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 57 56 55 50 47 41 37 34 31 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 19 17 16 13 13 13 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -15 -12 -1 2 -11 -1 -17 -17 -23 -24 -26 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 28 23 21 7 -9 -10 10 -9 2 -6 6 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 2 5 1 -1 0 -1 -7 4 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1642 1701 1770 1852 1942 2056 1778 1500 1237 1002 768 545 345 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.5 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.2 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.4 129.7 131.0 132.4 135.1 137.9 140.7 143.4 145.9 148.5 151.2 153.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -19. -19. -19. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.0 127.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 HOWARD 08/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##