* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092016 08/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 36 37 39 41 40 39 36 35 34 33 32 30 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 36 37 39 41 40 39 36 35 34 33 32 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 32 31 30 28 26 24 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 8 10 7 10 11 12 9 10 12 19 21 18 17 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -5 -3 -2 -3 -1 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 287 289 266 270 268 239 214 211 227 237 226 245 248 257 276 301 321 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 25.4 25.1 24.8 23.7 24.4 24.5 25.2 25.3 25.6 26.2 26.1 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 143 143 142 119 115 112 101 108 109 117 118 121 127 126 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 61 59 57 55 54 49 45 40 37 34 31 31 34 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -6 2 2 -4 -12 -14 -8 -6 -8 -11 -8 -10 -13 -20 -32 -22 -15 200 MB DIV 50 56 45 31 22 26 20 12 -8 11 3 -12 -4 -27 -14 -46 -21 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -2 -2 0 0 5 1 0 -1 -3 -7 -7 -12 -9 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 1402 1448 1501 1566 1616 1715 1874 2053 1895 1634 1359 1090 796 511 253 89 8 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.5 19.6 20.6 21.5 22.1 22.6 22.9 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.6 123.6 124.7 125.9 128.4 131.1 133.9 136.7 139.3 142.1 144.9 148.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 14 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 11 13 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 17. 17. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092016 NINE 08/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.71 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.82 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 19.2% 17.7% 13.0% 0.0% 13.8% 12.7% 10.6% Logistic: 2.9% 10.1% 4.2% 2.2% 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 10.0% 7.3% 5.1% 0.5% 5.3% 4.7% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092016 NINE 08/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##