* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 45 41 39 33 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 49 45 41 39 33 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 41 38 33 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 4 3 4 11 13 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 1 4 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 94 108 116 108 152 190 196 196 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.3 24.1 23.9 24.4 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 108 107 105 104 102 107 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 42 41 41 39 38 37 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 48 53 55 62 62 56 56 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 14 -4 6 1 -8 -18 -14 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -7 -2 6 5 13 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1738 1750 1764 1792 1824 1945 2052 1865 1631 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.8 21.3 21.6 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.5 129.0 129.4 130.1 130.8 132.6 134.8 137.0 139.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -16. -22. -31. -40. -46. -48. -49. -51. -53. -54. -54. -54. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.3 128.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.22 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 505.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##