* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 60 53 47 43 36 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 60 53 47 43 36 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 59 52 46 42 35 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 9 9 9 12 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 0 0 0 3 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 101 112 117 122 137 165 187 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.7 24.5 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.6 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 108 106 106 103 102 99 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 43 41 41 40 37 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 12 10 7 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 35 45 55 62 72 78 72 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -5 6 22 7 12 -9 -8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -1 -2 0 8 11 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1721 1725 1731 1743 1757 1839 1944 2024 1806 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.3 128.7 129.0 129.5 129.9 131.4 133.3 135.5 137.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -19. -21. -24. -26. -29. -32. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -12. -12. -9. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -17. -23. -27. -34. -41. -50. -59. -62. -65. -67. -69. -70. -71. -72. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.3 128.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.68 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 659.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##