* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 72 65 59 49 40 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 80 72 65 59 49 40 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 80 71 63 58 48 39 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 9 11 10 12 16 22 24 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 7 4 1 -1 2 3 4 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 74 111 104 109 123 158 176 173 180 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.5 23.7 24.0 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 112 110 109 108 105 102 98 100 103 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 46 43 42 41 37 35 32 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 11 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 21 32 44 51 68 81 82 79 66 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 -15 -16 -2 8 -7 12 -11 -1 -13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 0 -1 -6 5 9 8 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1720 1718 1719 1726 1734 1801 1924 2000 1842 1587 1347 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.4 22.4 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.4 128.7 129.1 129.5 130.8 132.7 134.9 137.3 139.8 142.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 7 8 10 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -22. -28. -34. -39. -43. -46. -49. -52. -55. -58. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -16. -19. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -31. -41. -50. -61. -71. -78. -86. -89. -91. -92. -93. -95. -96. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.0 128.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 824.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##