* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 51 50 46 38 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 50 51 50 46 38 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 45 42 38 32 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 8 4 4 3 7 11 13 14 14 14 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 63 46 47 52 103 110 109 120 115 134 123 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.3 25.9 25.0 24.0 23.5 23.1 22.6 22.4 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 141 140 136 122 113 102 96 92 86 85 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 59 56 53 50 45 43 42 43 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 19 19 19 19 19 16 14 12 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -53 -44 -50 -50 -47 -31 -34 -35 -11 4 20 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -2 17 6 4 -7 -9 -20 -5 -19 -11 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 0 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 509 530 552 584 626 742 791 865 958 1058 1172 1312 1378 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.7 20.8 21.1 21.3 22.0 22.8 23.5 24.0 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.2 114.9 115.5 116.3 117.1 118.9 120.6 122.2 123.6 124.9 126.2 127.7 129.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 7 6 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. -4. -12. -20. -28. -37. -42. -48. -48. -47. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.5 114.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 21.7% 21.2% 15.6% 11.6% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.9% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##