* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 55 54 54 51 44 36 28 20 16 16 18 20 21 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 55 54 54 51 44 36 28 20 16 16 18 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 52 50 49 47 44 38 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 9 6 3 2 13 17 19 21 22 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 1 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 27 20 27 38 13 88 93 106 98 108 109 110 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.5 26.7 25.8 25.2 24.4 24.1 23.8 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 139 140 138 130 120 114 105 101 98 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 66 66 62 61 60 57 54 51 48 48 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 20 20 20 19 20 20 16 14 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -51 -44 -53 -52 -45 -58 -40 -43 -45 -34 -20 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 12 12 0 -10 0 -13 -5 -18 -3 -11 -10 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 447 474 504 543 563 618 694 789 844 912 989 1072 1156 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.0 23.2 23.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.5 114.0 114.6 115.2 116.6 118.0 119.5 120.9 122.2 123.3 124.4 125.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 5 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. -0. -3. -6. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -4. -11. -19. -27. -35. -39. -39. -37. -35. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.0 113.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 23.0% 15.6% 14.4% 10.6% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.8% 5.3% 4.8% 3.6% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##