* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 111 111 107 101 87 73 58 48 38 29 21 17 17 17 16 15 V (KT) LAND 105 111 111 107 101 87 73 58 48 38 29 21 17 17 17 16 15 V (KT) LGEM 105 109 107 101 94 79 67 56 47 40 34 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 2 4 4 4 8 11 3 3 8 11 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 4 6 1 -1 0 0 -5 0 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 135 55 112 134 142 86 101 101 166 189 196 188 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.0 24.7 23.9 23.6 22.7 23.0 23.1 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 125 119 111 109 101 98 90 93 94 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 55 53 51 45 43 41 39 37 34 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 15 14 14 12 11 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 0 9 27 36 60 62 79 86 76 69 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 6 -6 -4 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -12 -5 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -12 -9 -6 -2 -1 -2 -3 2 5 12 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1706 1707 1706 1707 1711 1715 1730 1778 1881 1948 1880 1621 1362 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.5 19.4 20.5 21.4 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.8 126.3 126.8 127.3 127.7 128.4 129.3 130.6 132.3 134.5 137.0 139.7 142.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 9 10 12 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -16. -25. -34. -42. -50. -56. -61. -64. -66. -69. -73. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 2. -4. -18. -32. -47. -57. -67. -76. -84. -88. -88. -88. -89. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.1 125.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 866.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.7% 4.5% 16.1% 6.5% 5.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 21.6% 1.5% 5.4% 2.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/25/16 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 13 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##