* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 37 39 39 39 37 35 34 32 28 25 22 19 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 36 37 39 39 39 37 35 34 32 28 25 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 32 30 30 32 33 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 26 23 19 10 7 9 11 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 244 242 238 233 244 220 231 243 249 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 25.2 24.3 23.5 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 128 129 128 127 128 127 115 106 98 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.9 -55.4 -55.8 -55.8 -55.5 -55.8 -56.0 -56.7 -57.2 -57.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 40 41 41 38 34 33 37 38 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 6 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 16 17 16 8 -13 -34 -48 -38 -37 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -18 11 10 18 -13 19 23 33 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 13 11 12 14 11 8 11 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 42 5 58 148 246 452 675 893 1100 1298 1515 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.2 23.8 25.0 26.4 28.0 30.0 32.1 34.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.6 159.3 160.0 160.8 161.5 163.1 164.7 166.0 166.6 166.7 166.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 5 6 4 3 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 760 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -11. -12. -13. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.3 158.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##