* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 77 78 77 73 70 62 56 47 41 33 30 28 28 28 26 V (KT) LAND 70 73 77 78 77 73 70 62 56 47 41 33 30 28 28 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 76 77 76 74 69 62 55 47 40 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 2 5 5 7 10 15 12 10 8 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 1 3 1 1 -1 1 0 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 88 97 129 84 109 108 83 67 69 100 145 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.3 27.7 27.1 26.8 26.1 25.3 25.0 24.7 24.1 24.1 23.2 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 141 134 131 123 114 111 108 102 103 94 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 56 54 51 45 41 40 38 36 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 16 15 14 12 15 13 13 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 2 -4 0 3 5 28 42 63 68 71 65 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 16 19 24 21 -7 0 -12 -4 -10 -6 -11 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -10 -12 -15 -6 0 0 -1 -3 3 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1646 1676 1711 1735 1749 1742 1751 1759 1799 1872 1987 2067 1877 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.3 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.4 125.2 125.9 126.6 127.6 128.4 129.1 130.1 131.4 133.0 134.9 136.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 7 7 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 23 11 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -24. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. 0. -2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 8. 7. 3. 0. -8. -14. -23. -29. -37. -40. -42. -42. -42. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 14.4 123.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 498.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 -2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.5% 35.7% 28.3% 25.3% 19.4% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.6% 14.0% 15.4% 8.3% 7.2% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.5% 17.2% 14.6% 11.2% 8.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##