* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 28 30 31 27 25 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 36 34 34 32 36 33 30 27 25 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 35 33 32 30 28 27 27 28 29 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 21 25 29 33 25 19 19 23 22 22 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 -4 -4 -3 -4 -6 -3 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 245 247 243 236 247 242 248 235 244 241 257 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.2 26.5 26.5 25.9 25.9 25.5 24.0 23.5 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 137 138 135 128 129 122 122 118 103 98 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 -55.3 -55.3 -55.7 -56.0 -56.6 -57.1 -57.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 32 35 36 39 41 40 43 42 40 38 39 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 8 11 12 14 9 -20 -43 -54 -52 -57 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -5 10 18 11 -7 -12 -28 22 16 21 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 3 5 6 12 11 14 14 11 15 12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -7 1 72 53 32 -9 175 398 616 838 1066 1303 1537 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.5 21.0 22.1 23.4 24.9 26.4 28.1 30.0 32.1 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.3 156.0 156.7 157.4 158.1 159.4 160.9 162.4 163.8 165.0 166.0 166.8 167.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 16 19 15 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 757 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 17. 16. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -24. -26. -28. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. -24. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 155.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##