* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052016 07/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 36 34 34 35 36 34 30 29 28 26 22 21 19 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 35 35 36 36 34 31 30 28 26 23 21 19 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 32 34 33 32 31 30 29 30 31 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 18 21 29 29 22 18 20 20 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 238 246 241 237 236 243 240 240 239 246 248 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.1 26.2 25.8 24.6 23.5 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 135 136 138 132 129 125 126 122 109 98 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.7 -56.1 -56.6 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 33 36 37 39 40 42 41 38 37 38 38 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 3 8 10 13 16 -3 -39 -58 -61 -53 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -10 -4 11 20 0 -12 -23 1 26 21 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 4 6 7 10 12 9 11 8 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 85 13 -3 55 55 26 53 258 482 716 965 1222 1484 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.5 19.9 20.3 21.3 22.6 24.0 25.5 27.2 29.2 31.4 33.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.4 155.2 155.9 156.5 157.2 158.4 159.9 161.4 162.9 164.3 165.5 166.5 167.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 17 15 15 19 11 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -14. -18. -19. -21. -25. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.8 154.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 10.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.6% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052016 DARBY 07/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##