* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GEORGETTE EP082016 07/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 71 74 79 80 78 73 69 65 59 55 48 42 37 30 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 71 74 79 80 78 73 69 65 59 55 48 42 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 72 75 80 82 80 75 69 63 57 51 44 38 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 13 10 6 5 5 7 9 10 13 10 7 8 8 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -2 1 -2 1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 71 81 110 117 110 61 84 42 80 80 81 84 96 75 128 133 149 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.5 27.8 27.5 27.7 26.8 25.7 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.8 23.8 23.1 23.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 150 142 139 140 131 119 113 111 109 106 110 100 93 100 101 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 60 60 57 57 54 56 54 52 49 43 39 37 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 16 16 16 15 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 22 33 40 25 22 6 14 10 36 44 48 58 59 72 65 200 MB DIV 51 38 43 32 30 15 20 4 -2 0 0 -5 -15 -9 -10 1 11 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -7 -10 -10 -4 -3 0 -2 0 -2 2 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1448 1490 1528 1563 1603 1669 1728 1760 1780 1790 1837 1906 1988 2055 2028 1856 1677 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.9 120.9 121.9 122.8 124.5 125.9 127.1 128.0 128.7 129.7 130.9 132.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 22 15 13 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 24. 25. 23. 19. 14. 10. 4. -0. -7. -13. -18. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.0 118.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.8% 45.0% 33.5% 24.5% 16.7% 31.7% 18.2% 13.9% Logistic: 8.7% 22.7% 13.9% 10.0% 12.6% 7.4% 4.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 1.9% 14.5% 4.5% 1.7% 4.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 9.5% 27.4% 17.3% 12.1% 11.4% 13.4% 7.7% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082016 GEORGETTE 07/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##