* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANK EP072016 07/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 65 66 68 68 67 66 61 58 55 50 43 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 65 66 68 68 67 66 61 58 55 50 43 38 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 63 64 64 62 59 56 51 45 39 34 29 24 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 14 11 8 9 12 6 13 12 14 7 13 15 15 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 1 -1 1 4 2 2 4 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 31 37 34 20 27 39 50 47 50 48 67 95 118 110 108 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.6 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.7 25.0 24.6 23.5 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 152 150 144 138 135 130 124 118 111 107 96 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 75 75 74 72 75 74 74 70 67 63 59 54 51 47 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 15 16 17 18 19 19 19 18 18 16 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 -8 -9 -19 -39 -46 -53 -46 -32 -29 -41 -55 -68 -61 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 40 45 32 37 7 12 3 20 5 -6 5 -24 -12 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -6 -5 -5 -3 -6 -2 -4 -3 -7 -4 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 413 465 469 460 466 487 526 548 574 626 708 789 845 896 971 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.6 110.4 111.2 111.9 113.1 114.1 115.1 116.1 117.1 118.3 119.5 120.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 14 15 15 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 6. 3. -0. -5. -12. -17. -18. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.1 108.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.48 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 30.0% 24.8% 18.9% 13.5% 18.6% 15.2% 12.0% Logistic: 3.6% 10.4% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 3.1% 1.4% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 14.1% 10.3% 7.1% 4.8% 7.3% 5.6% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072016 FRANK 07/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##